Bangladesh in trouble, happiness knows no bound

‘Hey brother, how’s the country? I heard Bangladesh Bank is empty? You will see that there will be no electricity from the next month. Ha ha....’ I went to an office for some urgent work. This is how the office manager welcomed me. His eyes were sparkling with joy. Before I could answer any questions he said, would you like to have tea? Now there is austerity. Drink tea without sugar. He laughed like a gust of wind. The gentleman is a businessman. He flourished after the Awami League came to power. He also has some good connections with Awami League's hybrid ministers. Now he is joking about the crisis of the country. He has become a critic of Awami League. He has become a critic of Awami League. Not only this businessman, some people of the country and the media now seem to lose themselves in happiness. There is dollar crisis in the country. The price of dollar is increasing at a rapid pace. Oh what a joy. They giving wisdom to the nation in talk shows. There is also load-shedding in the country. And everyone is an energy expert in the country right now. Everyone is a scholar. I am seeing pages of reports in the newspaper about the looting in the name of capacity charge. The honorable guests are tired of explaining the government's wrong policies in the energy sector on television talk shows. Some of these civils in white-clothes appear in front of the nation constantly. Their sudden presence to the media has created quite a surprise. It is as if they are playing the role of astrologer. Something bad always happens when our civil servants are frequently visible. Some scholars said that Bangladesh will go bankrupt if the Padma Bridge is self-financed. On July 21, the overjoyed narrator, Economist, embarked on a virtual conversation on the status and trends of the 20 largest projects. He was almost saying, 'Mega or big project debt repayment pressure is coming to the economy in the near future. The grace period for repayment of foreign loans in some major development projects is nearing the end. Repayment of these loans will begin between 2024 and 2026. As the repayment period draws closer, it becomes a cause of concern for the economy. According to him, the situation will get complicated in the next two to three years. This is a matter of concern. A matter of great worry. But why he was saying the words cheerfully? Is it good news that Bangladesh will be in crisis? Another economist is struggling to say three cheers with the fact that foreign exchange reserves have fallen below $40 billion. Commenting that the situation in Bangladesh is similar to Sri Lanka, he could not hide the smile on his face. In the past one week, some newspapers in Bangladesh have been spreading fear. 

"There is no good index except for exports", "Consumption increasing, purchase orders decreasing", "Dollar prices increasing due to the crisis", "The economic crisis is not ending soon", "5 million new people will fall below the poverty line in Bangladesh" etc headlines are terrible bad news for people like us. Our eyes go blurred when we hear such news. Our hands and feet get cold. You can ignore the news in the newspaper. But how can you ignore the predictions of the scholars? On July 24, several of One-Eleven's advisory boards came together under the umbrella of the CPD. They sang chorus of woes in unison over the country's economic woes. Among them, finance advisers of one-eleven government lamented over inflation for a while. But he easily forgot that the country was in dire economic crisis under his leadership in 2007 and 2008. Another was the energy advisor to that government. During his tenure there was 12 to 14 hours’ load shedding. He could not provide the minimum solution to the power crisis in two years. However, on that day, he warned the government in a bookish fashion. Another adviser, disillusioned by the rice crisis in 2008 said, "It's easy to sit on the other side of the chair and criticize. But it is difficult to solve the crisis sitting on the chair." He also came up with the theory of 'Iron Triangle' and received applause. In this tale of crisis, a news came out in a newspaper that there is rationing of oil at the petrol pump. Oil is not being given to motorcycles costing more than 400 Tk. Octane is not being given to private cars above 3 thousand Tk. The news is very cleverly presented. You will be horrified to read a piece of news. "However last part of the news said that, petrol-octane is being sold normally at other pumps." A petrol pump may limit or stop the sale of oil for various reasons. But what is the meaning of spreading panic by serving it as national news? The chairman of BPC had to hold a press conference to respond to this irresponsible news. In Bangladesh, many are eagerly waiting to see the country in a position like Sri Lanka. Some television channels licensed during the Awami League period are waiting for the live telecast of that scene. 

This does not mean that there is no crisis in this country. There is no fear in the economy. Yes, of course there is. These crises and fears are intensifying. People are suffering from load shedding every day. Due to the increase in commodity prices, public life is disorientated. The dollar market in unbridled. The dollar crisis is troubling traders. All in all, Bangladesh is suffering. But is it only Bangladesh who is in crisis and struggling? Is inflation only in Bangladesh? Is only Bangladesh facing a shortage in foreign reserve? Is the price of dollar rising in Bangladesh only? No. This is a global crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted a global recession in its July 26 "World Economic Outlook" report. According to the report, the global economic progress has been darkened by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war after the Corona epidemic. If you read that report a little deeper, it can be seen that the condition of Bangladesh is relatively good despite the troubled situation of the world economy. The report details how global conditions have worsened in countries like the US, Europe, UK, Canada, China and India. The IMF estimates global growth at 3.2 percent this year. Bangladesh's growth has been estimated at 6.4. Bangladesh will do better than China (3.3), Canada (3.4), UK (3.2), Europe (2.6) and USA (2.3) in terms of growth rate. Next year, Bangladesh will surpass India in terms of growth. If Bangladesh practices austerity as a precaution in the global crisis, the why is so much fuss? If some load shedding has to be done for global instability, does it mean the end of everything? Does Bangladesh fail only if there is an abnormal rise in commodity prices for the world market? 

In the current crisis, the biggest fear is being spread about the foreign exchange reserves. The Prime Minister assured the nation last Wednesday, "With the current reserves, food can be imported for the next 6 to 9 months." During the tenure of the current government, the foreign exchange reserves have gone to a position to be proud of. Reserves are a symbol of a country's economic strength and capacity. Bangladesh's reserves were over 40 billion dollars for two years. It recently fell below $40 billion. Some are portraying this foreign exchange reserves below $40 billion as a danger sign. Is that so? Not at all. In economics, it is said that, if a country’s reserve can cover three months of expenses then the country is in comfortable position. With the current reserves, Bangladesh can meet its import expenditure for the next five months. Moreover, there is a downward trend in the reserves of all countries in the world. China has the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. In the last seven months, China's reserves have fallen from $3,250 billion to $3,050 billion. Japan's reserves fell from $1,400 billion to $1,300 billion. Switzerland's reserves fell from $950 billion to $840 billion. India's reserves are now the lowest in the last 20 years. Last January, India's reserves were $600 billion. Now it is 572 billion dollars. Pakistan's reserves are below 15 billion dollars. With which the country will not be able to meet the expenses of three months. This is why it is said that Pakistan is going to be the next Sri Lanka. However, despite having three times the foreign exchange reserves of Pakistan, some people are bursting with joy that Bangladesh will become Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka's reserves are now below $2 billion. 

There has been a moaning over dollar all week. On the last working day, the dollar was sold at Tk.112 in the open market. It's unusual. There is another reason behind this. The dollar has been on an upward trend for the past few months. That is why many consider it a profitable investment. Some are buying dollars with cash in hopes of higher profits. This is a bad trend in the economy. But due to the ongoing economic crisis, the local currency has been depreciating against the dollar for some time. Recently, John Hopkins University economist Steve Hunkey conducted a study on currencies losing value against the dollar. This study shows that the currency is depreciating in every country. According to Steve Hankey, the biggest price drop was the Venezuelan currency, the Bolivar. In the last 30 months, the price of this coin has fallen by almost 100 percent. Zimbabwe dollar is now 950 against 1 dollar. The third drop was the Lebanese pound. 1 US dollar gives you 1510 Lebanese pounds. In the last 30 months, the value of the Lebanese currency has fallen by almost 93 percent. The Syrian pound is now 4010 against the dollar. In the last 30 months, developed country Turkey is also facing a huge economic crisis. Their currency, the lira, has depreciated by nearly 67 percent. Now 17.80 lira is available against 1 dollar. 1 dollar is worth 229 Pakistani rupees. The Indian rupee is also setting new records in its depreciation. 

Last Monday, the Indian rupee touched its lowest level against the dollar. Now 1 dollar is available for 80 rupees. Indian economists say prices will continue to decline. For the first time, the euro, the currency of the European Union, has fallen below the dollar. This decline is predicted to continue. The value of the British pound has fallen by 13 percent in the last 30 months. Is Bangladesh out of the world situation? There is no way to deny that Bangladesh could have been in better situation. Huge amount of money was smuggled abroad. There has been looting festival in some banks. The Supreme Court of the country said, "The biggest crimes are now taking place in the banking sector." Corruption within the government is not being controlled. The government is taking measures to stop these. But maybe that’s not enough. But this crisis has created an opportunity. In personal life also we see that when a man is in financial crisis he curbs his unnecessary expenditure. Eliminates bad habits. This crisis has also created an area to stop wastage in Bangladesh. It has given an opportunity to be tough against corruption. Urged to increase surveillance to stop money laundering. The government must now be thinking; how rational it is to pay capacity payments or rent the power plants while keeping them in place. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Electricity and Water, the government has given about 17 thousand crores to 90 public and private power plants from last July to March. The average power plant rent is about Tk 1,865 crore per month. It remains to be seen what the government does about the situation. But just think about the terrible power crisis the country was in from 2001 to 2008. At that time Quick Rentals was the immediate solution. One doesn't have to be a scholar to understand that the government will get out of quick rental by launching big power generation projects in the future. If projects like Rooppur nuclear project and Rampal shines, there will be no need for quick rental. Awami League's 2008 election manifesto shows that Awami League adopted three strategies to solve the electricity crisis. Short term, medium term and long term. It was this government that freed the nation from 16 to 20 hours of load shedding. Germany is now going back to coal-fired power generation for fuel and electricity. When the Rampal coal-based power plant was announced in Bangladesh, it was these pundits who mourned. Some mourned in the streets siting that the Sundarbans would be destroyed. But now they are saying, we need to emphasize on coal, gas based power generation. Earlier they said, generating electricity with coal will endanger the environment. Now they are saying why they buried the coal underground. What will the government do? A major criticism against the government in the field of energy is its reluctance to extract gas. Few days ago, I saw a former energy advisor saying, 'oil and gas has not been explored within the country as a primary product. It takes 500 crores to dig five gas wells. The government did not want to take the risk in case enough gas is not found. No one could show the political courage to take this risk.' Even after this when someone questions Sheikh Hasina’s Political courage, I only feel sorry for them. Questioning Sheikh Hasina's political courage after the construction of Padma Bridge is ridiculous. It was these scholars who in 2014 strongly criticized the drilling of gas well at one's pleasure. He said, 'Exploring gas without due diligence is a form of corruption.' Having been an energy consultant for two years, how many wells did he dig by taking bold steps? 

A state, a society, a family can suddenly fall into crisis. In such situation true well-wishers stands by side. Give honest advice. But those who are jealous and selfish clap their hands at the other’s pain. Waits for their doom. And laughs at others' suffering. 

The current situation in Bangladesh is the reality of a global crisis. At this time, I see that some people have become opportunist. They are desperate to panic the people by exaggerating the crisis. Dozens intellectuals have been criticizing the government for the past month. Trying to prove the government a failure. Making jokes about the mistakes of the government. But not one of them tells the government what to do. When the government took austerity measures, they said more steps had to be taken. What step? There is no answer to this question. BNP leaders have also been disturbed by the rallying music sung by the civils. The lullaby taught by civilizes are now on the lips of BNP leaders. A desperate attempt to present the current austerity as a government crisis is becoming increasingly visible. If Bangladesh really falls into crisis, they will not feel sorry for this country. Instead, they will celebrate. All the intellectuals say that the crisis will occur in 2023 or 2024. 2023-24 is the election year of Bangladesh. So is this panic festival to keep the government cornered before the election? Do the liberals want to sit in the parliament again by putting a gun on the neck of the BNP and unsettling the people?